What Do We Know About the Accuracy and Impact of USDA Reports in the Corn Market?
What Do We Know About the Accuracy and Impact of USDA Reports in the Corn Market?
By: Olga Isengildina Massa, Berna Karali, and Scott H. Irwin
In response to grower concerns regarding the increasing complexity of the crop report survey process, the accuracy of reports for market integrity, and a declining participation rate, commodity groups and farm organizations have invested time and resources to improve the NASS survey process and results.
Growers and staff from the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) began to collaborate with NASS officials in 2016 to address these issues. These efforts have been expanded and extended by the National Corn Growers Association through commissioning this independent study to establish the state of knowledge regarding the accuracy and market impact of USDA information on corn markets.
The goal of this study was to conduct a systematic review of previous studies that evaluated the accuracy and market impact of USDA reports relevant to the corn market. These reports included Prospective Plantings, Acreage, Crop Production, Crop Progress, Grain Stocks, Export Sales, and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
To accomplish this goal, this study:
- Found and cataloged over 80 relevant studies published in academic and public outlets with a particular focus on studies published in the last 20 years. We created a searchable database where these studies can be sorted using various metrics and keywords.
- Critically assessed the findings and implications of relevant studies along the following topics:
How Accurate and Reliable are USDA Production Forecasts?
How Precise and Efficient are USDA Price Forecasts?
What About the Accuracy of Other USDA Forecasts?
Can Private Forecasters Beat the USDA?
Do USDA Reports Move the Markets?
Are Markets “Surprised” by USDA Information?
Do USDA Reports Increase or Decrease Market Uncertainty?
Does USDA Information Have Value?
How Long Does the Market Reaction Last? Insights from Intraday Data.
- Reconciled the findings of the previous studies to draw conclusions about the accuracy and impact of USDA reports.
- The answers to these questions may help rebuild public confidence in USDA information and improve farmer participation in its collection.
Olga Isengildina Massa is the John B. and Kristi L. Rowsell Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
Berna Karali is a Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
Scott H. Irwin is the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
This project was funded by the generosity of the National Corn Growers Association.
