Virginia Tech® home

References

References

Abbott, P., D. Boussios, and J. Lowenberg-DeBoer. 2016. “Valuing Public Information in Agricultural Commodity Markets: WASDE Corn Reports.” Proceedings of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134].

Adjemian, M.K, and S.H. Irwin. 2018. “USDA Announcement Effects in Real-Time.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 100(4):1151-1171.

Adjemian, M.K., and A. Smith. 2012. “Using USDA Forecasts to Estimate the Price Flexibility of Demand for Agricultural Commodities.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 94(4):978-995.

Adjemian, M.K., and C.A. Arnade. 2017. “Not Lost in Translation: The Impact of USDA Reports on International Corn Markets.” Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL, July 30-August 1, 2017.

Adjemian, M.K., V.G. Bruno, and M.A. Robe. 2020. “Incorporating Uncertainty into USDA Commodity Price Forecasts.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102(2):696-712.

Adjemian, M.K., and S.H. Irwin. 2020. “The Market Response to Government Crop News under Different Release Regimes.” Journal of Commodity Markets 19:100110.

Adjemian, M.K., R. Johansson, A. McKenzie, and M. Thomsen. 2018. “Was the Missing 2013 WASDE Missed?” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 40(4):653-671.

Arnade, C., L. Hoffman, and A. Effland. 2021. “The Impact of Public Information on Commodity Market Performance: The Response of Corn Futures to USDA Corn Production Forecasts.” ERR-293, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

Baur, R. F., Orazem, P. F. 1994. “The Rationality and Price Effects of U.S. Department of Agriculture Forecasts of Oranges.” Journal of Finance, 49(2): 681-696.

Bian, S., T. Serra, P. Garcia, and S.H. Irwin. 2021. “New Evidence on Market Response to Public Announcements in the Presence of Microstructure Noise.” European Journal of Operational Research 298(2):785-800.

Botto, A.C., O. Isengildina, S.H. Irwin, and D.L. Good. 2006. “Accuracy Trends and Sources of Forecast Errors in WASDE Balance Sheet Categories for Corn and Soybeans.” American and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Long Beach, CA, July 23-26, 2006.

Boussios, D., S.R. Skorbiansky, and M. MacLachlan. 2021. “Evaluating U.S. Department of Agriculture's Long-Term Forecasts for U.S. Harvested Area.” ERR-285, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

Campbell, J.Y., Lo, A.W., MacKinlay, A.C., 1997. The Econometrics of Financial Markets. Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.

Cao, A.N.Q., and M.A. Robe. 2022. “Market Uncertainty and Sentiment around USDA Announcements.” Journal of Futures Markets 42(2):250-275.

Colling, Phil L.; Irwin, Scott H.; Zulauf, Carl R. 1996. “Reaction of Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Futures Prices to USDA “Export Inspections” Reports.” Review of Agricultural Economics 18(1): 127-138.

Conklin, N.C. 1983. “Grain Exports, Futures Markets, and Pricing Efficiency.” Review of Research in Futures Markets 2(1):I983.

Couleau, A., T. Serra, and P. Garcia. 2020. “Are Corn Futures Prices Getting ‘Jumpy’?” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102(2):569-588.

Dorfman, J.H., and B. Karali. 2015. “A Nonparametric Search for Information Effects from USDA Reports.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 40(1):124-143.

Egelkraut, T.M., P. Garcia, S.H. Irwin, and D.L. Good. 2003. “An Evaluation of Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans: USDA and Private Information Agencies.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 35(1):79-95.

Fackler, P.L.  1985. “On the Relation Between Futures Price Movements and USDA Reports.” Proceedings of the NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. Chicago, IL. [http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/nccc134].

Falk, B., Orazem, P.F. 1985. “A Theory of Future's Market Responses to Government Crop Forecasts.” working paper.

Fama, Eugene F. 1970. Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. Journal of Finance 25 (2): 383–417.

 

Fernandez‐Perez, A., B. Frijns, I. Indriawan, and A. Tourani‐Rad. 2019. “Surprise and Dispersion: Informational Impact of USDA Announcements.” Agricultural Economics 50(1):113-126.

Fortenbery, T.R., and D.A. Sumner. 1993. “The Effects of USDA Reports in Futures and Options Markets.” Journal of Futures Markets 13(2):157-173.

French, K.R., R. Leftwich, and W. Uhrig. 1989. “The Effect of Scheduled Announcements on Futures Markets.” Working Paper 273, University of Chicago, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business.

Garcia, P., S.H. Irwin, R.M. Leuthold, and L. Yang. 1997. “The Value of Public Information in Commodity Futures Markets.” Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 32(4):559-570.

Good, D.L., and S.H. Irwin. 2006. “Understanding USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts: Methods, Performance and Market Impacts over 1970-2005.” AgMAS Project Research Report No. 2006-01, available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.897279.

Good, D.L., and S.H. Irwin. 2011. “USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates and Yield Forecasts: Dispelling Myths and Misunderstandings.” Marketing and Outlook Briefs, MOBR 11-02, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Good, D.L. and S.H. Irwin. 2013. “USDA Corn and Soybean Production Forecasting Procedures Revisited with a Focus on Derived Ear Weights.” farmdoc daily (3):164, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 28, 2013.

Good, D.L., and S.H. Irwin. 2014. “Accuracy of USDA Forecasts of Corn Ending Stocks.” farmdoc daily (4):94, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, May 21, 2014.

Goyal, R., and M.K. Adjemian. 2021. “The 2019 Government Shutdown Increased Uncertainty in Major Agricultural Commodity Markets.” Food Policy 102:102064.

Hamilton, J.D. 1992. “Was the Deflation During the Great Depression Anticipated? Evidence

from the Commodity Futures Market.” American Economic Review 82:157–78.

 

Henriksson, R.D., and R.C. Merton. 1981. “On Market Timing and Investment Performance II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills.” Journal of Business, 54: 513-533.

Hoffman, L.A., X.L. Etienne, S.H. Irwin, E.V. Colino, and J.I. Toasa. 2015. “Forecast Performance of WASDE Price Projections for U.S. Corn.” Agricultural Economics 46(S1):157-171.

Houck, J.P., and C. Rock. 1990. “USDA Crop Forecasts: A Good Track Record.” Choices 5(1):28-30.

Huang, J., T. Serra, and P. Garcia. 2021. “The Value of USDA Announcements in the Electronically Traded Corn Futures Market: A Modified Sufficient Test with Risk Adjustments.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 72(3):712-734.

Huang, J., T. Serra, P. Garcia, and S.H. Irwin. 2022. “To Batch or not to Batch? The Release of USDA Crop Reports.” Agricultural Economics 53(1):143-154.

Indriawan, I.; V. Martinez, and Y. Tse. 2021. “The Impact of the Change in USDA Announcement Release Procedures on Agricultural Commodity Futures.” Journal of Commodity Markets 23:100149.

Irwin, S.H. 2021. “Was the Final USDA Estimate of the 2020 U.S. Corn Yield an Outlier?” farmdoc daily (11):30, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, March 3, 2021.

Irwin, S.H., and D.L. Good. 2011a. “Have the Accuracy of USDA’s August Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts Changed?” farmdoc daily (1):134, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 19, 2011.

Irwin, S.H., and D.L. Good. 2011b. “USDA Corn and Soybean Yield Forecast Errors Across Report Release Months.” farmdoc daily (1):143, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, September 1, 2011.

Irwin, S.H., and D.L. Good. 2015. “Long-Term Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat Price Forecasts and the Farm Bill Program Choice.” farmdoc daily (5):20, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, February 4, 2015.

Irwin, S.H., and D.L. Good. 2016. “Opening Up the Black Box: More on the USDA Corn Yield Forecasting Methodology.” farmdoc daily (6):162, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 26, 2016.

Irwin, S.H., D.L. Good, and J. Newton. 2014. “Do Big Corn Crops Always Get Bigger?” farmdoc daily (4):156, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 20, 2014.

Irwin, S.H., D.L. Good, and D. Sanders. 2014. “Are USDA Corn Yield Forecasts Getting Better or Worse over Time?” farmdoc daily (4):166, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, August 29, 2014.

Irwin, S.H., D.L. Good, and D. Sanders. 2015. “Understanding and Evaluating WAOB/USDA Corn Yield Forecasts.” farmdoc daily (5):79, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, April 30, 2015.

Irwin, S.H., D.L. Good, and D. Sanders. 2016. “Revisiting USDA Corn and Soybean Grain Stocks Estimates.” farmdoc daily (6):136, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, July 20, 2016.

Irwin, S.H., and T. Hubbs. 2018. “Measuring the Accuracy of Forecasting Corn and Soybean Yield with Good and Excellent Crop Condition Ratings.” farmdoc daily (8):118, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, June 27, 2018.

Irwin, S.H., and T. Hubbs. 2020. “The Accuracy of Early Season Crop Weather Model Forecasts of the U.S. Average Corn Yield.” farmdoc daily (10):136, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, July 23, 2020.

Irwin, S.H., D. Sanders, and D.L. Good. 2014a. “Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans.” farmdoc daily (4):8, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, January 17, 2014.

Irwin, S.H., D. Sanders, and D.L. Good. 2014b. “Is There a Problem with USDA Grain Stocks Estimates in Corn?” farmdoc daily (4):15, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, January 29, 2014.

Irwin, S.H., D. Sanders, and D.L. Good. 2014c. “Explanations for Recent Surprises in USDA Corn Stocks Estimates: How Well Do They Hold Up?” farmdoc daily (4):22, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, February 7, 2014.

Irwin, S.H., D. Sanders, and D.L. Good. 2014d. “The Role of Sampling Errors in Explaining Recent Surprises in USDA Corn Stocks Estimates: Part I.” farmdoc daily (4):27, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, February 13, 2014.

Irwin, S.H., D. Sanders, and D.L. Good. 2014e. “The Role of Sampling Errors in Explaining Recent Surprises in USDA Corn Stocks Estimates: Part II.” farmdoc daily (4):28, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, February 14, 2014.

Isengildina-Massa, O., X. Cao, B. Karali, S.H. Irwin, M.K. Adjemian, and R.C. Johansson. 2021. “When Does USDA Information Have the Most Impact on Crop and Livestock Markets?” Journal of Commodity Markets 22:100137.

Isengildina, O., S.H. Irwin, and D.L. Good. 2004. “Evaluation of USDA Interval Forecasts of Corn and Soybean Prices.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 86(4):990-1004.

Isengildina, O., S.H. Irwin, and D.L. Good. 2006. “Are Revisions to USDA Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 88(4):1091-1104.

Isengildina, O., S.H. Irwin, and D.L. Good. 2013. “Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in USDA Forecasts.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 45(1):95-107.

Isengildina, O., S.H. Irwin, D.L. Good, and J. Gomez. 2008a. “The Impact of Situation and Outlook Information in Corn and Soybean Futures Markets: Evidence from WASDE Reports.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 40(1):89-103.

Isengildina-Massa, O., S.H. Irwin, and D.L. Good. 2010. “Quantile Regression Estimates of Confidence Intervals for WASDE Price Forecasts.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 35(3):545-567.

Isengildina-Massa, O., S.H. Irwin, D.L. Good, and J.K. Gomez. 2008b. “Impact of WASDE Reports on Implied Volatility in Corn and Soybean Markets.” Agribusiness 24(4):473-490.

Isengildina-Massa, O., S.H. Irwin, D.L. Good, and L. Massa. 2011. “Empirical Confidence Intervals for USDA Commodity Price Forecasts.” Applied Economics 43(26):3789-3803.

Isengildina-Massa, O., B. Karali, and S.H. Irwin. 2013. “When Do the USDA Forecasters Make Mistakes?” Applied Economics 45(36):5086-5103.

Isengildina-Massa, O., B. Karali, and S.H. Irwin. 2017. “Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 39(4):559-583.

Isengildina-Massa, O., B. Karali, and S.H. Irwin. 2020. “Can Private Forecasters Beat the USDA? Analysis of Relative Accuracy of Crop Acreage and Production Forecasts.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 52(4):545-561.

Isengildina‐Massa, O., and J.L. Sharp. 2012. “Evaluation of USDA Interval Forecasts Revisited: Asymmetry and Accuracy of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices.” Agribusiness 28(3):310-323.

Johansson, R., A. Effland and K. Coble. "Falling Response Rates to USDA Crop Surveys: Why It Matters." farmdoc daily (7):9, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, January 19, 2017

Just, R.E., and G.C. Rousser. 1981. “Commodity Price Forecasting with Large-Scale Econometric Modles and the Futures Market.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 63(2):197-208.

Karali, B. 2012. “Do USDA Announcements Affect Comovements Across Commodity Futures Returns?” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 37(1):77-97.

Karali, B., S.H. Irwin, and O. Isengildina‐Massa. 2020. “Supply Fundamentals and Grain Futures Price Movements.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 102(2):548-568.

Karali, B., O. Isengildina-Massa, S.H. Irwin, M.K. Adjemian, R. Johansson. 2019. “Are USDA Reports Still News to Changing Crop Markets?” Food Policy 84:66-76.

Kauffman, N. 2013. “Have Extended Trading Hours Made Agricultural Commodity Markets Riskier?” Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Q III:5-32.

Lehecka, G.V. 2014. “The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 39(1):88-105.

Lehecka, G.V., X. Wang, and P. Garcia. 2014. “Gone in Ten Minutes: Intraday Evidence of Announcement Effects in the Electronic Corn Futures Market.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 36(3):504-526.

Mattos, F.L., and R.L.F. Silveira. 2016. “Futures Price Response to Crop Reports in Grain Markets.” Journal of Futures Markets 36(10):923-942.

McKenzie, A.M. 2008. “Pre-Harvest Price Expectations for Corn: The Information Content of USDA Reports and New Crop Futures.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 90(2):351-366.

McKenzie, A., and N. Singh. 2011. “Hedging Effectiveness around U.S. Department of Agriculture Crop Reports.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 43(1):77-94.

McNew, K.P., and J.A. Espinosa. 1994. “The Informational Content of USDA Crop Reports: Impacts on Uncertainty and Expectations in Grain Futures Markets.” Journal of Futures Markets 14(4):475-492.

Milacek, T.T., and B.W. Brorsen. 2017. “Trading Based on Knowing the WASDE Report in Advance.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 49(3):400-415.

Milonas, N.T. 1994. “USDA Crop Forecasts and a Price Anomaly in Futures Markets.” Review of Futures Markets 13(3):907-932.

Orazem, Peter F.; Falk, Barry. 1989. “Measuring Market Responses to Error-Ridden Government Announcements.” Quarterly Review of Economics and Business 29(2): 41-56.

Patterson, P.M., and B.W. Brorsen. 1993. “USDA Export Sales Report: Is It News?” Review of Agricultural Economics 15(2):367-378.

Plante, M., and N. Dhaliwal. 2017. “Inventory Shocks and the Oil-Ethanol-Grain Price Nexus.” Economics Letters 156:58-60.

Shang, Q., M. Mallory, and P. Garcia. 2018. “The Components of the Bid‐Ask Spread: Evidence from the Corn Futures Market.” Agricultural Economics 49(3):381-393.

Sumner, D.A., and R.A.E. Mueller. 1989. “Are Harvest Forecasts News? USDA Announcements and Futures Market Reactions.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 71(1):1-8.

Tack, J., K.H. Coble, R. Johansson; A. Harri, and B.J. Barnett. 2019. “The Potential Implications of ‘Big Ag Data’ for USDA Forecasts.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 41(4):668-683.

Vogel, F.A., and G.A. Bange. 1999. “Understanding USDA Crop Forecasts.” Miscellaneous Publication No. 1554, U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service and Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Outlook Board, available at http://www.nass.usda.gov/Education_and_Outreach/Understanding_Statistics/pub1554.pdf.

Wang, X., P. Garcia, and S.H. Irwin. 2014. “The Behavior of Bid-Ask Spreads in the Electronically-Traded Corn Futures Market.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 96(2):557-577.

Xiao, J., C.E. Hart, and S.H. Lence. 2017. “USDA Forecasts Of Crop Ending Stocks: How Well Have They Performed?” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 39(2):220-241.

Xie, R., O. Isengildina-Massa, and J.L. Sharp. 2016. “Can Rationality of USDA's Fixed-Event Crop Forecasts be Improved?” Advances in Business and Management Forecasting 11:117-146.

Ying, J., Y. Chen, and J.H. Dorfman. 2019. “Flexible Tests for USDA Report Announcement Effects in Futures Markets.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 101(4):1228-1246.

USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist. 2020 Agricultural Outlook.  February 20, 2020. (available at: PowerPoint Presentation (usda.gov))