Olga Isengildina Massa
Ph.D., Mississippi State University, Agricultural Economics, Finance minor, 2000
M.S., Mississippi State University, Agricultural Economics, 1996
B.A., Tashkent State University, English Philology, 1993
My area of expertise is in commodity market analysis and forecasting. My research focuses on analyzing existing USDA commodity forecasts to provide recommendations for potential areas of improvement as well as developing alternative forecasting and production and price analysis models. My teaching consists of futures and options, price analysis, and commodity marketing classes to prepare students for dealing with price risk management issues in their future careers. I also oversee the COINS (Commodity Investing by Students) program, which enables students of all majors to gain hands-on experience trading and investing in commodity markets.
- Value of information and agricultural forecasting
In a series of studies devoted to price interval forecasts, I implemented new approaches to examining interval forecast accuracy, proposed and evaluated alternative methods of generating empirical confidence intervals and made specific recommendations to the USDA on how to improve their price interval forecasting procedures.
Currently I am working on developing a statistical test for interval forecast comparison that will be based on the trade-off function between accuracy and informativeness characteristics of these forecasts. I am using behavioral economic approaches to conduct experiments that would allow me to estimate the certainty equivalents between these characteristics at various levels of parameters.
In the area of forecast accuracy and efficiency analyses, I detected inefficiencies in multiple categories of corn, soybean, wheat and cotton forecasts and developed procedures for their correction.
Current work focuses on whether market participants anticipate inefficiencies in USDA forecasts and take it into account when they interpret and react to this information.
- Commodity marketing and price risk management
My market impact evaluation studies measured futures price reaction to the release of WASDE reports in corn and soybean markets and all relevant market reports in livestock, hog and cotton markets. These studies are particularly important for determining the value of information provided by USDA, and have been highlighted in a recent seminar funded by the Council on Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics (C-FARE).
A new project will examine the theoretical models and empirical evidence of the value of public information in agricultural markets in order to determine how big data and access to information affects the role and impact of USDA situation information.
My price risk management studies examined producer use of Market Advisory Services, and producer risk management behavior, including the application of the concept of bounded rationality to explain producer behavior, as well as market timing and basis forecasting studies.
New work will focus on basis analysis and forecasting for both livestock and crop commodities relevant in Virginia and the neighboring states.
- Product marketing and consumer demand analysis
My research in product marketing and consumer demand analysis focused mostly on willingness to pay and economic impact evaluation and was applied to two cases: locally grown campaign in SC and an electronic trade platform (MarketMaker). The locally grown campaign studies extended from using contingent valuation methods for evaluation of the potential campaign impact, to using choice experiments to disentangle the revealed impact of various campaign components. MarketMaker research was also very innovative partially due to a new nature of the problem and included development of an evaluation framework and its implementation using national data from agricultural producers and farmers markets.
- Applied Agribusiness Research
In my research I try to offer solutions to timely and important agribusiness problems. Examples include the feasibility analysis for a peanut shelling facility in South Carolina funded by the Farm Bureau; an agribusiness strategic plan for an industrial park development funded by Barnwell County, SC; and a comprehensive assessment of the South Carolina agri-business cluster funded by MarketSearch Group. These studies allowed me to contribute to important projects that addressed stakeholder needs, contributed funds to support graduate program and provided excellent experiential learning opportunities for my students.
Courses taught at Virginia Tech
AAEC 3514 Agricultural Futures and Options
AAEC 4424 Agricultural Financial Management
Courses taught Elsewhere
Economics for Managers
Principles of Microeconomics
Commodity Price Analysis
Futures and Options Markets
- Associate Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, 2015 - Present
- Adjunct Associate Professor in the School of Agricultural, Forest and Environmental Sciences, Clemson University, 2013 - Present
- Associate Clinical Professor in the Department of Economics, University of Texas at Arlington, 2012 - 2015
- Associate Professor in the John E. Walker Department of Economics, Clemson University, 2012 - 2013
- Assistant Professor in the John E. Walker Department of Economics, Clemson University, 2011 - 2012
- Assistant Professor in the Department of Applied Economics and Statistics, Clemson University, 2006 - 2011
- Visiting Scholar in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2001 - 2006
- Post-Doctoral Research Associate in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, 2000 - 2001
Third Place, Southern Economics Association Poster Competition, February 2013.
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Outstanding Reviewer Award, 2012.
Clemson University College of Business and Behavioral Science, Graduate Teaching Excellence Award, 2011-2012.
Selected Recent Publications
National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2017. Improving Crop Estimates by Integrating Multiple Data Sources. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/24892.
Zapata, S.D., O. Isengildina-Massa, C.E. Carpio, and R.D. Lamie “Does E-Commerce Help Farmers’ Markets? Measuring the Impact of MarketMaker.” Journal of Food Distribution Society.
Olga Isengildina-Massa, Berna Karali, Scott H. Irwin; Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices, Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, , ppx032, https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppx032
Xie, R., O. Isengildina-Massa, J. Sharp, and J. Dwyer. “The Impact of Public and Semi-Public Information on Cotton Futures Markets.” Applied Economics, 48:36(2016):3416-3431.
Xie, R., O. Isengildina-Massa, and J. Sharp. “Can Rationality of USDA’s Fixed-Event Crop Forecasts Be Improved?” Advances in Business and Management Forecasting, 11(2016):117-146.
Carpio, C.E., and O. Isengildina-Massa. “Does Government Sponsored Advertising Increase Social Welfare? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 38:2(2016):239-259.
Hughes, D.W., and O. Isengildina-Massa. "Keeping Dollars Home: The Economic Impact of the Farmers' Markets and the South Carolina Locally Grown Campaign." Food Policy, 54(1):78-84.
Xie, R., O. Isengildina-Massa, and C.E. Carpio. “The Biggest Bang for your Buck: Disentangling the Impacts of Various Components of Government Funded Advertising on Participating Restaurants.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 46 (2) (May 2014): 193-208.
Zapata, S.D., C.E. Carpio, O. Isengildina-Massa, and R.D. Lamie “Producers’ Willingness to Pay for the Services Provided by an Electronic Trade Platform: The Case of MarketMaker.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 38(3) (December 2013): 359-378.
Isengildina, O., B. Karali, S.H. Irwin. “When do the USDA Forecasters Make Mistakes?” Applied Economics, Vol. 45 (2013), No. 36, 5086–5103.
Isengildina, O., S.H. Irwin, and D.L. Good. “Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in USDA Production Forecasts.” Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 45(1) (February 2013): 95-107.
Isengildina-Massa, O. and J.L. Sharp. "Evaluation of USDA Interval Forecasts Revisited: Asymmetry and Accuracy of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices" Agribusiness: An International Journal, 28(3) (Summer 2012): 310-323.
Isengildina-Massa, O., S. MacDonald and R. Xie. “Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 37(1) (April 2012): 98-113.
Zapata, S., C.E. Carpio, O. Isengildina-Massa and D. Lamie, D. "Do Internet-Based Promotion Efforts Work? Evaluating MarketMaker.” Journal of Agribusiness, 29 (1) (2011): 159-180.
Isengildina, O., S.H. Irwin, D.L. Good. “Quantile Regression Methods of Estimating Confidence Intervals for WASDE Price Forecasts.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 35 (3) (2010): 545-567.
Carpio, C.E., and Isengildina, O. “To Fund or Not to Fund: Assessment of the Potential Impact of a Regional Promotion Campaign.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 35(2) (2010): 245-260.
Isengildina, O., S.H. Irwin, D.L. Good. "Empirical Confidence Intervals for WASDE Forecasts of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices." Applied Economics, 1466-4283, December 2010.
Carpio, C.E., and Isengildina, O. “Willingness to Pay for Locally Grown Products: The Case of State Grown Products in South Carolina.” Agribusiness: An International Journal, 25(3) (2009): 412-426.