Cocoa Beans, Chocolate, and Halloween

By: Walter Ac-Pangan

Halloween treats are expected to be more expensive than ever this year, following the chocolate price trends of last year, due to the combination of inflation and supply chain disruptions, which have increased price volatility in the cocoa commodity markets.

Looking at the cocoa futures prices over the past decade. The traditional $2,000 - $3,500 range reflected a relatively balanced global market, where supply shocks were temporary and production growth in the Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Latin America kept pace with demand. However, the recent surge in years past broke this historical pattern, making current prices more than double the historical ceiling. Cocoa futures have ranged approximately between $4,000 - $10,000 per metric ton.

Supply shortages and the resilience of consumer habits have been shaping the chocolate economy. The increase in cocoa prices appears to be mainly driven by a structural change in the cocoa supply chain, particularly affecting the availability and cost of cocoa beans. It has been reported that structural changes in supply can have a significant impact on price fluctuations, causing a ripple effect throughout the supply chain and resulting in larger impacts on costs and prices downstream, ultimately affecting consumers. For example, a 4% change in the supply of cocoa beans can generate price volatility of 12–20% in the futures market. Consumer prices for candy and chocolate have likely risen by 8% to 16% over the past 12 months.

Cocoa Beans Supply Overview

• West Africa (Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, Cameroon) produces roughly 70–75% of the world’s cocoa.
• Latin America (Ecuador, Brazil, Peru, Dominican Republic) is growing rapidly thanks to fine-flavor cocoa varieties.
• Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Papua New Guinea) production has declined slightly due to aging trees and disease.
  

Trends (2020–2025)

• Ivory Coast and Ghana remain dominant, though yields fluctuated due to weather and disease (e.g., swollen shoot virus).
• Ecuador has emerged as a fast-growing producer, now ranking third globally.
• Sustainability programs and certification efforts are reshaping supply chains in all regions.

Over the past three years, the prices of cocoa beans and chocolate have surged, with Halloween treats following a similar pattern. Cocoa suppliers must manage inflation, higher production and transportation costs, alongside droughts and policy changes.