A new study published in Agriculture & Food Security finds that rising prices for staple foods can affect what households eat in different ways, depending on whether they live in rural or urban areas and, for rural households, how much land they own.

A staple price increase can force households to make difficult choices about how to allocate their family’s food budgets and what they put on their table. The study by Jessie Lin, a research agricultural economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, and Anubhab Gupta, an assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, examines how changes in the prices of cereal grains like maize, teff, sorghum, wheat, and barley affect food spending, dietary variety, and food security in Ethiopia.

Using data from three nationally representative household surveys conducted between 2013 and 2016 and again between 2018 and 2019, the researchers compared expenditure patterns, diets, and food security of rural and urban households to understand how they respond to changes in staple food prices.

The results show important differences between the two groups.

In urban households:

  • Higher prices for teff were associated with a larger share of food expenditure going toward cereals.
  • There was an increase in the share of expenditure on fruits and vegetables when the prices of maize, teff, sorghum, and wheat increased.
  • Dietary variety declined when maize and teff prices increased.
  • A one percent increase in the price of maize was associated with a 3 percent decline in dietary variety, while a one percent increase in the price of teff was associated with a 4.4 percent decline.
  • These effects were mainly observed among poor urban households and were not significant for non-poor urban households.
  • Changes in the prices of sorghum, wheat, and barley were not significantly associated with changes in dietary variety among urban households.

In rural households:

  • Dietary variety declined when the prices of maize, sorghum, and wheat increased, with declines ranging from 5.7 percent to 14.1 percent.
  • Maize prices had the largest effect.
  • Among rural households with less than four hectares of land, an increase in maize prices was associated with a 12 percent to 16 percent decline in dietary variety.
  • Barley price changes were not associated with changes in dietary variety for smallholder rural households with less than 2 hectares of land.
  • Landholding size played an important role in shaping the effects of staple prices on diets.
  • Larger rural landholders were generally less affected by the negative effects of higher staple food prices on dietary variety.
  • The researchers suggest that households with more land may benefit when staple crop prices rise because they can sell some of their production, helping offset the higher cost of purchasing food.

“Although this study focuses on Ethiopia, the underlying lesson is much broader. Food price shocks do not affect all households in the same way,” said Gupta. “Where people live, their income, and whether they produce food themselves can determine how they respond to price changes. These findings can help policymakers around the world better understand who is most vulnerable to rising food prices and design food-security interventions that reflect the realities of different communities.”


Original study: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40066-026-00642-8

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