- Applied Econometrics
Ph.D., Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia, 1987
M.S., Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, 1983
B.S., Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, 1981
My recent research has focused on interactions between climate anomalies and agricultural commodity markets and crop yields, the role of transactions costs and, more generally, nonlinearities in commodity price relationships, and the role of large-scale mechanical refrigeration in altering U.S. agricultural markets and production patterns during the industrial revolution (1880-1910). I have taught econometrics at the Ph.D. and master's levels as well as undergraduate courses in commodity price analysis and natural resource and environmental economics.
My current research uses advanced time series methods to examine shifting means and “common shifts” in global, hemispheric temperatures. I have also examined exchange rate pass-through for U.S. and Canadian prices for oriented strand board by using a smooth transition vector error correction model. Finally, I am also working on a project to examine how the means, variances, and spatial correlations for crop yields respond to technical change and weather shocks. Such information is important for purposes of assessing the likely impacts of climate change on food production.
Introductory Microeconomic Principles
Intermediate Microeconomic Theory
Master's level Microeconomic Theory
Ph.D. level Microeconomic Theory
Undergraduate-Master's-Ph.D. level Econometric Methods
Undergraduate Environmental and Resource Economics
Economic and Business Forecasting
- Professor and Head, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, 2017 - Present
- Professor and Dwight Harrigan Endowed Faculty Fellow in Natural Resource Economics, Department of Economics, Finance, and Legal Studies, University of Alabama, 2010 - 2017
- Head, Department of Economics, Finance, and Legal Studies, University of Alabama, 2013 - 2016
Publication of Enduring Quality Award, American Agricultural Economics Association, 2002
Quality of Research Discovery Award, American Agricultural Economics Association, 1999
Outstanding Journal Article, Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 1993
Outstanding Ph.D. Dissertation, American Agricultural Economics Association, 1988
Refereed Journal Articles
L.A. Craig and M.T. Holt. “The Role of Mechanical Refrigeration in Spatial and Temporal Price Dynamics for Regional U.S. Egg Markets, 1880–1911.” Explorations in Economic History, forthcoming.
B.K. Goodwin, M.T. Holt, G. Önel, and J.P. Prestemon. “Copula-Based Nonlinear Modeling of the Law of One Price for Lumber Products.” Empirical Economics, forthcoming.
J.B. Tack and M.T. Holt. “The Influence of Weather Extremes on the Spatial Correlation of Corn Yields.” Climatic Change, 134(2016):299-309.
W. Enders and M.T. Holt. “The Evolving Relationships between Agricultural and Energy Commodity Prices: A Shifting-Mean Vector Autoregressive Analysis.” Chapter 4 in Jean-Paul Chavas, David Hummels, and Brian Wright, eds., The Economics of Food Price Volatility, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, NBER Research Series, 2014.
D. Ubilava and M. Holt. “El Nino Southern Oscillation and its Effects on World Vegetable Oil Prices: Assessing Asymmetries Using Smooth Transition Models.” The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 57(2013):273-297.
W. Enders and M.T. Holt. “Sharp Breaks or Smooth Shifts? An Investigation of the Evolution of Primary Commodity Prices.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 94(2012):659-673.
B.K. Goodwin, M.T. Holt, and J.P. Prestemon. “North American Oriented Strand Board Markets, Arbitrage Activity, and Market Price Dynamics: A Smooth Transition Approach.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93(2011):993-1014.
C.E. Hilmer, M.T. Holt, and R.C. Bishop. “Bootstraping Your Fish or Fishing for Bootstraps? Precision of Welfare Loss Estimates from a Globally Concave Inverse Demand Model of Commercial Fish Landings in the U.S. Great Lakes.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93(2011):98-112.
H.A. Klaiber and M.T. Holt. “The Role of Theoretical Restrictions in Price Forecasting with Inverse Demand Models.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 92(2010):70-85.
J.V. Balagtas and M.T. Holt. “The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 91(2009):87-105.
D.A. Bessler, J.H. Dorfman, M.T. Holt and J.T. LaFrance. “Econometric Developments in Agricultural and Resource Economics: The First 100 Years.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 92(2010):571-589.
M.T. Holt and J.V. Balagtas. “Estimating Structural Change with Smooth Transition Regressions: an Application to Meat Demand.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 91(2009):1424-1431.
Essays in Honor of Stanley R. Johnson, eds. M.T. Holt and J.-P. Chavas, Berkeley: Berkeley Electronic Press, 2006.